UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Jul 2020
Lightweight
VS
93%
Santos
7%
Bogatov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LS
Leonardo Santos
18 – 7
6'0"75" reachOrthodox46 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 36
RB
Roman Bogatov
10 – 1
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'8"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Santos

Santos is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 49 points.

Striking split: Bogatov throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Santos's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Santos
Bogatov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'8"
75"+
Reach
73"
46
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Bogatov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.1
2.7
57.5
Performance Avg
0.0
49
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Santos
Bogatov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
1
Body
9
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance12
1Clinch5
0Ground1
Santos
Bogatov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Santos
Bogatov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
1/11 fights
Santos
Bogatov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Santos
Bogatov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Santos
Bogatov
Striking4.3 / 0.0Volume4.8 / 0.0Grappling3.3 / 0.0Wrestling2.3 / 0.0Submission2.9 / 0.0Pressure6.1 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Santos
Strike Zones
Bogatov
Santos
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD9BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Bogatov
Attacking
9HEAD9BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (67% of attacks) — Bogatov absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Bogatov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Santos
RND
Bogatov
0/0R00/0

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L3.2L5.9L2013-062015-122020-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Santos · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06

Bogatov · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Leonardo SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07

News & Media

Leonardo Santos · Roman Bogatov
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