UFC 58: USA vs Canada
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2006
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Lambert
48%
MacDonald
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lambert
This is a genuine toss-up — Lambert at 52% vs MacDonald at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: MacDonald throws more volume but Lambert connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lambert's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lambert
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
75"
Reach
+78"
50
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lambert
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
17.7
53.6
Performance Avg
45.7
56
Quality of Victory
54
59
Momentum Score
35
Lambert
MacDonald
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.0
59%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
4Clinch2
1Ground0
Lambert
MacDonald
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lambert
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/39 fights
Chin rating based on
3/9 fights
Lambert
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
35
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Lambert
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lambert
MacDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
LambertMacDonald
Strike Zones
Lambert
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMacDonald
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lambert targets the head (71% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lambert absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lambert
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lambert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.7WinLossTrend
Lambert · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jason MacDonaldRating 2.8Submission
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09
L · KO · R1
Luiz CaneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 85: Bedlam · 2008-06
L · KO · R2
Wilson GouveiaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 80: Rapid Fire · 2008-01
W · KO · R2
Renato SobralRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 68: The Uprising · 2007-03
L · KO · R2
Rashad EvansRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 63: Hughes vs Penn · 2006-09
MacDonald · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Eric SchaferRating 1.5Submission
UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral · 2006-08
W · Sub · R1
Kristian RothaermelRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night 5 · 2006-06
L · Sub · R1
Jason LambertRating 1.5Submission
UFC 58: USA vs Canada · 2006-03