UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Lightweight
VS
55%
Garcia
45%
Gordon
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:27
Rafa
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19 – 4
5'7"70" reachOrthodox31 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Jared
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'9"
CFR 42

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Garcia

This is a genuine toss-up — Garcia at 55% vs Gordon at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gordon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gordon has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Garcia
Gordon
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
68"
31+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garcia
Gordon
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.6
42.1
44.7
Performance Avg
42.8
32
Quality of Victory
36
75
Momentum Score
63
Garcia
Gordon
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
54%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
33
Head
10
2
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance11
2Clinch0
11Ground0
Garcia
Gordon
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garcia
Gordon
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/23 fights
Chin rating based on
18/30 fights
Garcia
Gordon
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
63
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Garcia
Gordon
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Garcia
Gordon
Striking2.7 / 4.4Volume7.0 / 6.4Grappling2.9 / 1.6Wrestling2.0 / 1.1Submission1.4 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
Garcia
Strike Zones
Gordon
Garcia
Attacking
33HEAD2BODY1LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Gordon
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
33HEAD2BODY1LEGS36 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (92% of attacks) — Gordon absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Gordon targets the head (91% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Garcia
RND
Gordon
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.2L5.5L4.5W5.2W6.5L4.8W5.0W4.2L4.7W5.9W5.4W2021-032022-042023-042025-092026-04
WinLossTrend

Gordon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W2.5L4.6L4.5W2.9L4.5W4.5W5.2W5.5L4.6W7.2L5.2W6.2L5.2W4.8L1.9L2017-062019-112022-082025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Garcia · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Grant DawsonRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Gordon · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Thiago MoisesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Mark MadsenRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Rafa Garcia · Jared Gordon
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