UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
Sacramento, USA
30 Aug 2014
Lightweight
VS
38%
Medeiros
62%
Jackson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jackson
Jackson holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Medeiros has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Medeiros throws more volume but Jackson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Medeiros's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jackson has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Medeiros
Jackson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
75"+
Reach
71"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Medeiros
Jackson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.4
40.5
45.4
Performance Avg
43.0
47
Quality of Victory
38
39
Momentum Score
59
Medeiros
Jackson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.2
37%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
2
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Medeiros
Jackson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
4.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Medeiros
Jackson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
28
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Medeiros
Jackson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
59
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Medeiros
Jackson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Medeiros
Jackson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
MedeirosJackson
Strike Zones
Medeiros
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedJackson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Medeiros targets the head (78% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Jackson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Medeiros absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Medeiros
RND
Jackson
0/0R00/0
Medeiros · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Jackson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Medeiros · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Lando VannataRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Jackson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Dan IgeRating 3.4KO/TKO
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