UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jul 2021
Heavyweight
VS
5%
Baudot
95%
Nascimento
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nascimento
Nascimento is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nascimento has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.
Baudot has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Baudot's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nascimento has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Baudot
Nascimento
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
79"
Reach
+80"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Baudot
Nascimento
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.4
41.9
0.0
Performance Avg
41.5
0
Quality of Victory
31
0
Momentum Score
73
Baudot
Nascimento
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
28
4
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance29
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Baudot
Nascimento
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baudot
Nascimento
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
8/14 fights
Baudot
Nascimento
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
73
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Baudot
Nascimento
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baudot
Nascimento
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
BaudotNascimento
Strike Zones
Baudot
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedNascimento
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baudot targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nascimento targets the head (90% of attacks) — Baudot absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baudot
RND
Nascimento
0/0R00/0
Baudot · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Nascimento · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Baudot · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Josh ParisianRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Dec · R3
Parker PorterRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02
Upcoming
Rodrigo NascimentoUFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
Nascimento · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Tanner BoserRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09