UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Lightweight
VS
45%
Poirier
55%
McGregor
Win Probability
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
5'9"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Conor
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22 – 6
Knockout Artist2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'9"
CFR 74

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McGregor

This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 45% vs McGregor at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Poirier
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Poirier
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
74.4
58.2
Performance Avg
68.9
50
Quality of Victory
67
100
Momentum Score
100
Poirier
McGregor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
56%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
10 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
35
Head
13
0
Body
6
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
8Distance17
0Clinch1
28Ground9
Poirier
McGregor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Poirier
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Poirier
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
80%
10
KO / TKO Wins
8
4
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Poirier
McGregor
Striking6.0 / 9.4Volume4.0 / 3.0Grappling2.2 / 0.5Wrestling1.6 / 0.3Submission1.8 / 0.0Pressure6.6 / 7.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Poirier
Strike Zones
McGregor
Poirier
Attacking
35HEAD0BODY1LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD6BODY8LEGS27 absorbed
McGregor
Attacking
13HEAD6BODY8LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
35HEAD0BODY1LEGS36 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (97% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (48% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 48% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Poirier
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

McGregor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W6.3W5.1W5.1W5.5W2.1L4.5W5.1W3.4L5.0W3.4L5.3L2013-042015-012016-082021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

McGregor · Last 5

Upcoming
Max Holloway
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

News & Media

Dustin Poirier · Conor McGregor
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