METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Lightweight
VS
47%
Poirier
53%
McGregor
Win Probability
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsR1 · 5:00
def. Conor McGregor · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 47% vs McGregor at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGregor has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PoirierMcGregor
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Poirier
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Poirier
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
68.5
58.2
Performance Avg
67.0
50
Quality of Victory
67
100
Momentum Score
85
Poirier
McGregor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
9.3
/ 10
6.6
Style: Pressure
7.6
4.0
Style: Volume
2.9
10 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
35
Head
13
0
Body
6
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
8Distance17
0Clinch1
28Ground9
Poirier
McGregor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Poirier
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Poirier
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
80%
10
KO / TKO Wins
8
4
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
PoirierMcGregor
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (97% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (48% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 48% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevSubmission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisKO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
McGregor · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierUFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneKO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovSubmission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10