UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Welterweight
VS
63%
Brown
37%
Trinaldo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Trinaldo has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Trinaldo has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brown
Trinaldo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'9"
78"+
Reach
70"
35+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Brown
Trinaldo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
31.7
48.7
Performance Avg
48.6
39
Quality of Victory
35
92
Momentum Score
100
Brown
Trinaldo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
11
2
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground7
Brown
Trinaldo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Trinaldo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
64
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
26/37 fights
Brown
Trinaldo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Brown
Trinaldo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Trinaldo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
BrownTrinaldo
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTrinaldo
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (58% of attacks) — Trinaldo absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Trinaldo targets the head (92% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Trinaldo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Trinaldo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleRating 7.3Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Trinaldo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Danny RobertsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
W · KO · R3
Jai HerbertRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07