UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Glendale, USA
12 Jun 2021
Lightweight
VS
74%
Dober
26%
Riddell
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dober
Dober is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dober has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Riddell has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dober's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Riddell has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dober
Riddell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
+71"
37
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dober
Riddell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
20.7
53.2
Performance Avg
37.9
50
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
50
Dober
Riddell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.3
43%
Strike Accuracy
57%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
11 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
25
6
Body
7
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
19Distance25
1Clinch3
0Ground6
Dober
Riddell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dober
Riddell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Dober
Riddell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Dober
Riddell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
11
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dober
Riddell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.7
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.1
DoberRiddell
Strike Zones
Dober
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedRiddell
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dober targets the head (70% of attacks) — Riddell absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Riddell targets the head (74% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 74% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dober
RND
Riddell
0/0R00/0
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Riddell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
Riddell · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 2.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
L · Sub · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.7Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09