★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
45%
Jandiroba
55%
Dern
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Virna
Virna Jandiroba
"Carcara"
23 – 4
5'3"64" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak33 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'4"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

This is a genuine toss-up — Jandiroba at 45% vs Dern at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dern has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Jandiroba
Dern
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
64"+
Reach
63"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jandiroba
Dern
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.0
59.6
48.7
Performance Avg
51.1
35
Quality of Victory
39
45
Momentum Score
94
Jandiroba
Dern
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.2
40%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
26
3
Body
6
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
20Distance23
3Clinch1
0Ground11
Jandiroba
Dern
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jandiroba
Dern
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
70
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
16/21 fights
Jandiroba
Dern
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
94
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Jandiroba
Dern
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
46%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
5
6
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jandiroba
Dern
Striking1.4 / 1.4Volume5.8 / 5.7Grappling4.0 / 5.0Wrestling2.8 / 3.5Submission3.3 / 4.5Pressure4.4 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.5
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Jandiroba
Strike Zones
Dern
Jandiroba
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD6BODY3LEGS35 absorbed
Dern
Attacking
26HEAD6BODY3LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jandiroba targets the head (78% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Dern targets the head (74% of attacks) — Jandiroba absorbs 74% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jandiroba
RND
Dern
0/0R00/0

Jandiroba · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.8L5.2W5.0W6.7L4.2W5.6L4.6W5.2W5.0W6.2W5.5W6.7L5.2W2019-042021-062024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Jandiroba · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R5
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Yan XiaonanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Virna Jandiroba · Mackenzie Dern
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