Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises

Las Vegas, USA

17 Jul 2021

Lightweight

65%

Makhachev

35%

Moises

Win Probability

Submission

Round 4 · 2:38

Islam Makhachev

28 – 1

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs17-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 74

Thiago Moises

19 – 10

Well-Rounded2-fight slide31 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"

CFR 40

★ Official Result

Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR4 · 2:38

def. Thiago Moises · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Makhachev

→

Actual result

Makhachev wins

Submission · R4

Pre-fight analysis

Makhachev holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Moises has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Risk flags

Moises has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MakhachevMoises

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Makhachev

Moises

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'9"

70"

Reach

70"

Age

+31

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Makhachev

Moises

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

73.9

39.7

69.4

Performance Avg

42.7

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Makhachev

Moises

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

2.3

/ 10

7.1

Style: Pressure

5.0

Style: Volume

5.0

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

3Distance3

0Clinch0

4Ground0

Makhachev

Moises

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

4.2

/ 10

3.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.9

4.4

Submission Style (/10)

3.8

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Makhachev

Moises

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.3 stoppage

17 fights ago

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/29 fights

Chin rating based on

16/29 fights

Makhachev

Moises

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

17-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R5

W · KO · R1

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R3

Makhachev

Moises

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

61%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev

Moises

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.3

4.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.2

3.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.9

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.8

7.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.0

Makhachev

Strike Zones

Moises

Makhachev

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Moises

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Makhachev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Moises targets the head (67% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev

RND

Moises

0/0R00/0

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Ian Machado Garry

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Jack Della Maddalena

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R1

Renato Moicano

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R5

Dustin Poirier

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

W · KO · R1

Alexander Volkanovski

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Moises · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Gauge Young

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04

L · KO · R1

Jared Gordon

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05

W · Dec · R3

Trey Ogden

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

L · Dec · R3

Ludovit Klein

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06

W · KO · R3

Mitch Ramirez

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Thiago Moises

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