UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Lightweight
VS
49%
Oliveira
51%
Gaethje
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:22
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 49% vs Gaethje at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
74"+
Reach
70"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
66.1
58.6
Performance Avg
63.6
51
Quality of Victory
62
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
62%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
13
11
Body
3
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
20Distance15
8Clinch6
2Ground0
Oliveira
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Oliveira
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Oliveira
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
17
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
OliveiraGaethje
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (62% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07