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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Lightweight
VS
48%
Oliveira
52%
Gaethje
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:22
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
5'10"74" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakPressure Fighter
CFR 63
Justin
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
27 – 5
Striker3-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'11"
CFR 68
★ Official Result
Charles OliveirawinsSubmissionR1 · 3:22
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 48% vs Gaethje at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraGaethje
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oliveira
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
74"+
Reach
70"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
67.6
58.6
Performance Avg
65.5
51
Quality of Victory
63
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
7.7
/ 10
8.0
Style: Pressure
6.5
2.7
Style: Volume
4.3
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
13
11
Body
3
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
20Distance15
8Clinch6
2Ground0
Oliveira
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
4.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
6.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
17
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oliveira
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Oliveira
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Oliveira
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
64%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
17
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Gaethje
Striking3.0 / 7.7Volume2.7 / 4.3Grappling5.8 / 0.9Wrestling4.1 / 0.6Submission6.8 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Oliveira
Attacking
18HEAD11BODY1LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY5LEGS21 absorbed
Gaethje
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY5LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD11BODY1LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (62% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max Holloway
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz Gamrot
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia Topuria
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael Chandler
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman Tsarukyan
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Gaethje · Last 5

W · KO · R4
Ilia Topuria
KO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy Pimblett
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael Fiziev
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max Holloway
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin Poirier
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

News & Media

Charles Oliveira · Justin Gaethje
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