UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Kansas City, USA
26 Apr 2025
Bantamweight
VS
54%
Blackshear
46%
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Blackshear
This is a genuine toss-up — Blackshear at 54% vs at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Blackshear has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Blackshear has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Blackshear
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'5"
72"+
Reach
66"
31+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Blackshear
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
46.2
50.7
Performance Avg
44.2
48
Quality of Victory
32
56
Momentum Score
49
Blackshear
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
31%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
16
11
Body
5
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
47Distance25
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Blackshear
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Blackshear
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
94
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/25 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Blackshear
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
49
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Blackshear
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blackshear
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Blackshear
Strike Zones
Blackshear
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedAttacking
25 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blackshear targets the head (71% of attacks) — absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯 targets the head (64% of attacks) — Blackshear absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blackshear
RND
0/0R00/0
Blackshear · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
· QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Blackshear · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Davey GrantRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
AlatengheiliRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Sub · R2
Cody GibsonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Cody StamannRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R1
Montel JacksonRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
· Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Kleydson RodriguesRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Chad AnheligerRating 4.9Decision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Kevin CroomRating 5KO/TKO
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