UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
20 May 2023
Welterweight
VS
31%
Cosce
69%
Urbina
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Urbina
Urbina holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Cosce has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Urbina has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Urbina has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cosce's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Urbina has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cosce
Urbina
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
71"
Reach
+75"
31
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Cosce
Urbina
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.9
46.9
28.3
Performance Avg
43.0
25
Quality of Victory
55
27
Momentum Score
36
Cosce
Urbina
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
8
2
Body
3
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
6Distance16
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Cosce
Urbina
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cosce
Urbina
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
44
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/10 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Cosce
Urbina
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
27
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Cosce
Urbina
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cosce
Urbina
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
CosceUrbina
Strike Zones
Cosce
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedUrbina
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cosce targets the head (33% of attacks) — Urbina absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Urbina targets the head (47% of attacks) — Cosce absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cosce
RND
Urbina
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cosce · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Urbina · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Cosce · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Gilbert UrbinaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Blood DiamondRating 4.5Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Phil RoweRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
Urbina · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · KO · R2
Orion CosceRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · Sub · R2
Bryan BattleRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08