METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Cincinnati, USA
10 May 2014
Flyweight
VS
34%
Cariaso
66%
Smolka
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Chris CariasowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Louis Smolka · UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smolka
→
Actual result
Cariaso wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Smolka holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Cariaso has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Risk flags
Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smolka has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CariasoSmolka
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cariaso
Smolka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'9"
64"
Reach
+68"
45
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Smolka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
26.6
39.1
Performance Avg
46.5
29
Quality of Victory
46
45
Momentum Score
60
Cariaso
Smolka
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
5.9
/ 10
2.6
Style: Pressure
6.7
7.9
Style: Volume
2.9
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
16
2
Body
3
15
Leg
3
RangeRange
24Distance13
4Clinch5
0Ground4
Cariaso
Smolka
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cariaso
Smolka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
12
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Cariaso
Smolka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Cariaso
Smolka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cariaso
Smolka
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
CariasoSmolka
Strike Zones
Cariaso
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedSmolka
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the legs (54% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Smolka targets the head (73% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cariaso
RND
Smolka
0/0R00/0
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoDecision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonSubmission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezDecision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09