UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Cincinnati, USA
10 May 2014
Flyweight
VS
34%
Cariaso
66%
Smolka
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smolka
Smolka holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Cariaso has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smolka has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cariaso
Smolka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'9"
64"
Reach
+68"
44
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Smolka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
26.6
39.1
Performance Avg
46.5
29
Quality of Victory
46
45
Momentum Score
60
Cariaso
Smolka
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
16
2
Body
3
15
Leg
3
RangeRange
24Distance13
4Clinch5
0Ground4
Cariaso
Smolka
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cariaso
Smolka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
12
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Cariaso
Smolka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Cariaso
Smolka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cariaso
Smolka
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
CariasoSmolka
Strike Zones
Cariaso
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedSmolka
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the legs (54% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Smolka targets the head (73% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cariaso
RND
Smolka
0/0R00/0
Cariaso · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
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