UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Philadelphia, USA
30 Mar 2019
Middleweight
VS
45%
Holland
55%
Meerschaert
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Meerschaert
This is a genuine toss-up — Holland at 45% vs Meerschaert at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Meerschaert throws more volume but Holland connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holland's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Meerschaert has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holland
Meerschaert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
81"+
Reach
77"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holland
Meerschaert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.0
56.7
49.3
Performance Avg
48.2
44
Quality of Victory
50
51
Momentum Score
91
Holland
Meerschaert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
1
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch4
2Ground0
Holland
Meerschaert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
7.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holland
Meerschaert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/44 fights
Chin rating based on
26/59 fights
Holland
Meerschaert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
91
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Holland
Meerschaert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
11
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holland
Meerschaert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
7.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.1
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
9.2
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
HollandMeerschaert
Strike Zones
Holland
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMeerschaert
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (40% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Meerschaert targets the body (75% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holland
RND
Meerschaert
0/0R00/0
Holland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Meerschaert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holland · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
Meerschaert · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Reinier de RidderRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11