UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Brooklyn, USA
19 Jan 2019
Women's Flyweight
VS
56%
VanZant
44%
Ostovich
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:50
PV
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
8 – 5
5'4"65" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
Rachael
Rachael Ostovich
4 – 6
Submission Hunter3-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: VanZant

This is a genuine toss-up — VanZant at 56% vs Ostovich at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

VanZant has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

VanZant's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ostovich has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

VanZant
Ostovich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
65"+
Reach
62"
32+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
VanZant
Ostovich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
16.5
49.2
Performance Avg
42.4
45
Quality of Victory
54
84
Momentum Score
36
VanZant
Ostovich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.7
58%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
3
1
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch0
12Ground0
VanZant
Ostovich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
VanZant
Ostovich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/13 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
VanZant
Ostovich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
36
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
VanZant
Ostovich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

VanZant
Ostovich
Striking5.1 / 0.5Volume2.7 / 0.5Grappling3.7 / 8.0Wrestling2.6 / 5.6Submission4.0 / 10.0Pressure7.3 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
VanZant
Strike Zones
Ostovich
VanZant
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY2LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Ostovich
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY2LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯VanZant targets the head (80% of attacks) — Ostovich absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Ostovich targets the head (75% of attacks) — VanZant absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

VanZant
RND
Ostovich
0/0R00/0

VanZant · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5W4.5W5.5W5.4L5.2W1.5L5.5L5.2W1.6L2014-112015-122018-012020-07
WinLossTrend

Ostovich · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W5.0L2.8L4.0L2017-122018-072019-012020-11
WinLossTrend

VanZant · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Amanda RibasRating 1.6
Submission
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · Sub · R2
Rachael OstovichRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · Sub · R1
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · KO · R2
Bec RawlingsRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08

Ostovich · Last 4

L · KO · R3
Gina MazanyRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
L · Sub · R2
Paige VanZantRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Sub · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · 2018-07
W · Sub · R1
Karine GevorgyanRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12

News & Media

Paige VanZant · Rachael Ostovich
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