★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
42%
Blachowicz
58%
Adesanya
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Adesanya
This is a genuine toss-up — Blachowicz at 42% vs Adesanya at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Blachowicz throws more volume but Adesanya connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Blachowicz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Adesanya has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Blachowicz
Adesanya
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
+80"
43
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Blachowicz
Adesanya
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
63.4
53.0
Performance Avg
61.2
48
Quality of Victory
56
20
Momentum Score
100
Blachowicz
Adesanya
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
5
2
Body
2
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
17Distance12
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Blachowicz
Adesanya
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.3
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Blachowicz
Adesanya
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
18
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/40 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Blachowicz
Adesanya
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Blachowicz
Adesanya
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
39%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blachowicz
Adesanya
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
BlachowiczAdesanya
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedAdesanya
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (89% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Adesanya targets the head (42% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blachowicz
RND
Adesanya
0/0R00/0
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Adesanya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Adesanya · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joe PyferRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.3Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
W · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 7.2KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04