UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Flyweight
VS
54%
Chairez
46%
Bunes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Edgar
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
13 – 6
5'7"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Felipe
Felipe Bunes
"Felipinho"
14 – 9
Submission Hunter2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chairez

This is a genuine toss-up — Chairez at 54% vs Bunes at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Bunes throws more volume but Chairez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Chairez
Bunes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
69"
30+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chairez
Bunes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
47.4
50.6
Performance Avg
42.4
44
Quality of Victory
54
54
Momentum Score
29
Chairez
Bunes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
26
11
Body
2
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
40Distance29
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Chairez
Bunes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chairez
Bunes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Chairez
Bunes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
29
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Chairez
Bunes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chairez
Bunes
Striking1.2 / 0.5Volume3.9 / 0.5Grappling6.1 / 8.0Wrestling4.3 / 5.6Submission6.7 / 10.0Pressure6.5 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Chairez
Strike Zones
Bunes
Chairez
Attacking
26HEAD11BODY4LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD2BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Bunes
Attacking
26HEAD2BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD11BODY4LEGS41 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chairez targets the head (63% of attacks) — Bunes absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Bunes targets the head (90% of attacks) — Chairez absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chairez
RND
Bunes
0/0R00/0

Chairez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0107.2L5.0W7.1L5.0W5.1W2023-072024-022024-092025-032026-02
WinLossTrend

Bunes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0104.4L5.6W6.1L6.5L2024-012025-012025-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Chairez · Last 5

Upcoming
Bruno Silva
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Felipe BunesRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Sub · R1
CJ VergaraRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
Daniel LacerdaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Bunes · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Edgar ChairezRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
Jose JohnsonRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · KO · R2
Joshua VanRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

News & Media

Edgar Chairez · Felipe Bunes
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