UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Middleweight
VS
23%
Natal
77%
Anders
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Anders
Anders is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Anders has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Anders has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Anders has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Natal
Anders
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
77"+
Reach
75"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Natal
Anders
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
50.9
40.5
Performance Avg
45.4
30
Quality of Victory
41
81
Momentum Score
79
Natal
Anders
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
22
2
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance10
1Clinch2
0Ground11
Natal
Anders
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Natal
Anders
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
20/27 fights
Natal
Anders
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
79
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Natal
Anders
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Natal
Anders
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
NatalAnders
Strike Zones
Natal
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedAnders
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (57% of attacks) — Anders absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Anders targets the head (96% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Natal
RND
Anders
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Natal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Anders · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Anders · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Chris WeidmanRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jamie PickettRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 5.5Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06