Rogerio Nogueira vs Ryan Bader — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop

Indianapolis, USA

25 Sept 2010

Light Heavyweight

42%

Nogueira

58%

Bader

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Rogerio Nogueira

"Minotouro"

23 – 10

6'2"75" reachSouthpaw50 yrs2-fight slideStriker

CFR 14

Ryan Bader

"Darth"

23 – 5

Well-Rounded2-fight win streak43 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"

CFR 20

★ Official Result

Ryan BaderwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Rogerio Nogueira · UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Bader

→

Actual result

Bader wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 42% vs Bader at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Nogueira's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

NogueiraBader

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Nogueira

Bader

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'2"

Height

6'2"

75"+

Reach

74"

Age

+43

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Nogueira

Bader

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

14.4

20.1

47.0

Performance Avg

54.2

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

Nogueira

Bader

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

7.6

/ 10

4.8

/ 10

6.0

Style: Pressure

5.0

3.6

Style: Volume

6.3

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

15Distance13

2Clinch4

0Ground0

Nogueira

Bader

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.8

/ 10

2.0

/ 10

0.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.4

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.7

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Nogueira

Bader

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.7 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.3 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

2 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

13/33 fights

Chin rating based on

20/28 fights

Nogueira

Bader

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

2-fight 🔥 win streak

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · KO · R2

L · KO · R3

W · KO · R1

Last 5

W · KO · R3

W · KO · R2

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

Nogueira

Bader

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

67%

40%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nogueira

Bader

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

7.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.8

0.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.0

0.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.4

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.7

6.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.0

3.6

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.3

Nogueira

Strike Zones

Bader

Nogueira

Attacking

17 landed

Absorbing

17 absorbed

Bader

Attacking

17 landed

Absorbing

17 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Nogueira targets the head (76% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 76% of strikes there

🎯Bader targets the head (76% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nogueira

RND

Bader

0/0R00/0

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Mauricio Rua

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

L · KO · R1

Ryan Spann

KO/TKO

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05

W · KO · R2

Sam Alvey

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09

L · KO · R3

Ryan Bader

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11

W · KO · R1

Patrick Cummins

KO/TKO

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3

Rogerio Nogueira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11

W · KO · R2

Ilir Latifi

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09

L · KO · R1

Anthony Johnson

KO/TKO

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01

W · Dec · R3

Rashad Evans

Decision

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10

W · Dec · R3

Phil Davis

Decision

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Rogerio Nogueira · Ryan Bader

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