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UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
Indianapolis, USA
25 Sept 2010
Light Heavyweight
VS
42%
Nogueira
58%
Bader
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RN
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23 – 10
6'2"75" reachSouthpaw50 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 14
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak43 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 20
★ Official Result
Ryan BaderwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rogerio Nogueira · UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bader
→
Actual result
Bader wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 42% vs Bader at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Bader connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nogueira's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
NogueiraBader
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nogueira
Bader
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"+
Reach
74"
50
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Bader
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
20.1
47.0
Performance Avg
54.2
48
Quality of Victory
40
20
Momentum Score
100
Nogueira
Bader
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
45%
7.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
13
4
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance13
2Clinch4
0Ground0
Nogueira
Bader
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nogueira
Bader
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
10
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Nogueira
Bader
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nogueira
Bader
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
40%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nogueira
Bader
Striking7.6 / 4.8Volume3.6 / 6.3Grappling0.8 / 2.0Wrestling0.6 / 1.4Submission0.0 / 0.7Pressure6.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Nogueira
Strike Zones
Bader
Nogueira
Attacking
13HEAD4BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD4BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Bader
Attacking
13HEAD4BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD4BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (76% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Bader targets the head (76% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nogueira
RND
Bader
0/0R00/0

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L5.2W1.9L5.5L2009-112011-122016-052020-07
WinLossTrend

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Rogerio Nogueira · Ryan Bader
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