Rafa Garcia vs Vinc Pichel — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Mexico City, Mexico

29 Mar 2025

Lightweight

56%

Garcia

44%

Pichel

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Rafa Garcia

"Gifted"

19 – 4

5'7"70" reachOrthodox32 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 51

Vinc Pichel

"From Hell"

14 – 5

Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"

CFR 40

★ Official Result

Rafa GarciawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Vinc Pichel · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Garcia

→

Actual result

Garcia wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Garcia at 56% vs Pichel at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Pichel has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

GarciaPichel

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Garcia

Pichel

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'7"

Height

+5'10"

70"

Reach

+72"

32+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Garcia

Pichel

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

50.6

39.5

44.7

Performance Avg

41.3

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Garcia

Pichel

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.7

/ 10

2.6

/ 10

3.9

Style: Pressure

2.8

7.0

Style: Volume

8.0

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

27Distance33

3Clinch1

1Ground0

Garcia

Pichel

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.9

/ 10

2.1

/ 10

2.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.4

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Garcia

Pichel

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

11 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

12/23 fights

Chin rating based on

12/19 fights

Garcia

Pichel

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Garcia

Pichel

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

29%

14%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Garcia

Pichel

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.7

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.6

2.9

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.1

2.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

3.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

2.8

7.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

8.0

Garcia

Strike Zones

Pichel

Garcia

Attacking

31 landed

Absorbing

34 absorbed

Pichel

Attacking

34 landed

Absorbing

31 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Garcia targets the head (84% of attacks) — Pichel absorbs 84% of strikes there

🎯Pichel targets the head (38% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 38% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Garcia

RND

Pichel

0/0R00/0

Garcia · Last 5

Upcoming

Rongzhu

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09

W · Dec · R3

Alexander Hernandez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04

W · KO · R3

Jared Gordon

KO/TKO

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

W · Dec · R3

Vinc Pichel

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · KO · R2

Grant Dawson

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

Pichel · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Rafa Garcia

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · Dec · R3

Ismael Bonfim

Decision

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

L · Dec · R3

Mark Madsen

Decision

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04

W · Dec · R3

Austin Hubbard

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08

W · Dec · R3

Jim Miller

Decision

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08

News & Media

Rafa Garcia · Vinc Pichel

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