UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
56%
Garcia
44%
Pichel
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rafa
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19 – 4
5'7"70" reachOrthodox31 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Vinc
Vinc Pichel
"From Hell"
14 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Garcia

This is a genuine toss-up — Garcia at 56% vs Pichel at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Garcia has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Pichel has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Garcia
Pichel
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
31+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garcia
Pichel
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.6
39.5
44.7
Performance Avg
41.3
32
Quality of Victory
30
75
Momentum Score
40
Garcia
Pichel
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.5
47%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
13
5
Body
12
0
Leg
9
RangeRange
27Distance33
3Clinch1
1Ground0
Garcia
Pichel
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garcia
Pichel
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/23 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Garcia
Pichel
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
40
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Garcia
Pichel
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
14%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Garcia
Pichel
Striking2.7 / 2.6Volume7.0 / 8.0Grappling2.9 / 2.1Wrestling2.0 / 1.4Submission1.4 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 2.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.8
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.0
Garcia
Strike Zones
Pichel
Garcia
Attacking
26HEAD5BODY0LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD12BODY9LEGS34 absorbed
Pichel
Attacking
13HEAD12BODY9LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD5BODY0LEGS31 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (84% of attacks) — Pichel absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Pichel targets the head (38% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 38% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Garcia
RND
Pichel
0/0R00/0

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.2L5.5L4.5W5.2W6.5L4.8W5.0W4.2L4.7W5.9W5.4W2021-032022-042023-042025-092026-04
WinLossTrend

Pichel · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.1W2.8L4.7W4.9W4.5W5.7L5.9L6.3L2012-122017-062019-062022-042025-03
WinLossTrend

Garcia · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Grant DawsonRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Pichel · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Ismael BonfimRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mark MadsenRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08

News & Media

Rafa Garcia · Vinc Pichel
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