UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
Memphis, USA
12 Dec 2009
Welterweight
VS
53%
Grant
47%
Burns
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:57
TG
TJ Grant
21 – 5
5'10"72" reachOrthodox42 yrs5-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 21
KB
Kevin Burns
"The Fire"
12 – 7
Pressure Fighter3-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Grant

This is a genuine toss-up — Grant at 53% vs Burns at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Grant has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Burns has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Grant
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+74"
42+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grant
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.8
18.6
53.5
Performance Avg
45.8
41
Quality of Victory
50
75
Momentum Score
59
Grant
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
36%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
11
8
Body
0
10
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance3
8Clinch3
6Ground8
Grant
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Grant
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/26 fights
Chin rating based on
5/19 fights
Grant
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
59
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Grant
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Grant
Burns
Striking5.2 / 5.8Volume5.5 / 0.8Grappling2.2 / 4.0Wrestling1.5 / 2.8Submission1.3 / 5.0Pressure5.7 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Grant
Strike Zones
Burns
Grant
Attacking
10HEAD8BODY10LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY3LEGS14 absorbed
Burns
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY3LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD8BODY10LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Grant targets the head (36% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 36% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (79% of attacks) — Grant absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Grant
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Grant · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2009-042010-052011-102013-012013-05
WinLossTrend

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W5.5W4.0L5.5L1.5L2008-062008-072008-122009-062009-12
WinLossTrend

Grant · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Gray MaynardRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
W · KO · R1
Matt WimanRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01
W · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
W · Dec · R3
Carlo PraterRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
W · Sub · R3
Shane RollerRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R1
TJ GrantRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale · 2009-06
L · KO · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 4
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12
W · KO · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07
W · Sub · R2
Roan CarneiroRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 85: Bedlam · 2008-06

News & Media

TJ Grant · Kevin Burns
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