UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Heavyweight
VS
12%
Buchecha
88%
Spann
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Spann
Spann is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Spann has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.
Spann has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Spann has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Buchecha
Spann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'5"
77"
Reach
+79"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Buchecha
Spann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
6.1
43.3
0.0
Performance Avg
54.8
0
Quality of Victory
50
0
Momentum Score
10
Buchecha
Spann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.2
1.8
35%
Strike Accuracy
40%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Buchecha
Spann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Buchecha
Spann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
8
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/8 fights
Chin rating based on
16/35 fights
Buchecha
Spann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
10
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Buchecha
Spann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
4
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Buchecha
Spann
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
BuchechaSpann
Strike Zones
Buchecha
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSpann
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Buchecha targets the head (75% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Spann targets the head (80% of attacks) — Buchecha absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Buchecha
RND
Spann
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Buchecha · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Spann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Buchecha · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Ryan SpannRating 3.2KO/TKO
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