UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2017
Welterweight
VS
76%
Nelson
24%
Jouban
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Jouban throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jouban has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Jouban
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
44
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Nelson
Jouban
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
18.1
52.8
Performance Avg
49.7
46
Quality of Victory
42
61
Momentum Score
67
Nelson
Jouban
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
2.8
69%
Strike Accuracy
51%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
0
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nelson
Jouban
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Jouban
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
40
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
13/24 fights
Nelson
Jouban
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
67
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Nelson
Jouban
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
8
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Jouban
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
NelsonJouban
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedJouban
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jouban absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jouban targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Jouban
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Jouban · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Jouban · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 5.5Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03