METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Welterweight
VS
44%
Diaz
56%
Ferguson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 4 · 2:52
★ Official Result
Nate DiazwinsSubmissionR4 · 2:52
def. Tony Ferguson · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Submission · R4
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Diaz at 44% vs Ferguson at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazFerguson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
76"
Reach
76"
41+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
45.2
53.4
Performance Avg
54.2
50
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
52
Diaz
Ferguson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
6.1
3.2
Style: Volume
3.4
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
1
6
Body
5
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
25Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Diaz
Ferguson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
6.3
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
10
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Diaz
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Diaz
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
10
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Ferguson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
DiazFerguson
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedFerguson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (76% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the body (45% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05