UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Welterweight
VS
44%
Diaz
56%
Ferguson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 4 · 2:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
This is a genuine toss-up — Diaz at 44% vs Ferguson at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Diaz
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
76"
Reach
76"
41+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
45.2
53.4
Performance Avg
54.2
50
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
52
Diaz
Ferguson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
1
6
Body
5
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
25Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Diaz
Ferguson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Diaz
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Diaz
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
10
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Ferguson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
DiazFerguson
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedFerguson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (76% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the body (45% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05