UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2017
Flyweight
VS
41%
Smolka
59%
Nicolau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nicolau
This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 41% vs Nicolau at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Smolka throws more volume but Nicolau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smolka
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
66"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smolka
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
38.0
46.5
Performance Avg
44.7
46
Quality of Victory
32
60
Momentum Score
49
Smolka
Nicolau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
6
8
Body
15
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Smolka
Nicolau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Smolka
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
49
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Smolka
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Nicolau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
SmolkaNicolau
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedNicolau
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the body (53% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the body (71% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0
0/0R30/0
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Nicolau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
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W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
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Nicolau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6Decision
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L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5Decision
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