UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
50%
Danzig
50%
Guillard
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:47
MD
Mac Danzig
21 – 12
5'8"70" reachOrthodox46 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
MG
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32 – 18
Striker43 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Danzig

This is a genuine toss-up — Danzig at 50% vs Guillard at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Guillard throws more volume but Danzig connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Danzig's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guillard has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Danzig
Guillard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Danzig
Guillard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.9
17.7
46.0
Performance Avg
49.7
51
Quality of Victory
45
65
Momentum Score
73
Danzig
Guillard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
1
Body
3
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Danzig
Guillard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Danzig
Guillard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
22/50 fights
Danzig
Guillard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
73
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Danzig
Guillard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
58%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Danzig
Guillard
Striking2.8 / 7.0Volume4.0 / 3.8Grappling4.2 / 0.8Wrestling2.9 / 0.6Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Danzig
Strike Zones
Guillard
Danzig
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY4LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Guillard
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY4LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Danzig targets the head (50% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Guillard targets the head (81% of attacks) — Danzig absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Danzig
RND
Guillard
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Danzig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.5W6.0L2.8L5.9L4.5W1.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.8L5.5L2007-122009-072011-102013-12
WinLossTrend

Guillard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.2W1.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L1.9L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W5.6L2005-112008-072011-012012-122014-03
WinLossTrend

Danzig · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Joe LauzonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
L · KO · R2
Melvin GuillardRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Takanori GomiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11
W · Dec · R3
Efrain EscuderoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10

Guillard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross Pearson
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08

News & Media

Mac Danzig · Melvin Guillard
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