UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Women's Strawweight
VS
82%
Dern
18%
Cooper
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:27
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
AC
Amanda Cooper
"ABC"
3 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsSwitch64" reach5'3"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

Dern is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Cooper throws more volume but Dern connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Cooper has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dern
Cooper
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
63"
Reach
+64"
33+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Dern
Cooper
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
12.9
51.1
Performance Avg
37.3
39
Quality of Victory
40
94
Momentum Score
20
Dern
Cooper
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
5
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance6
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Dern
Cooper
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Cooper
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
62
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
6/8 fights
Dern
Cooper
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
20
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Dern
Cooper
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern
Cooper
Striking1.4 / 5.7Volume5.7 / 4.7Grappling5.0 / 1.2Wrestling3.5 / 0.8Submission4.5 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Dern
Strike Zones
Cooper
Dern
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Cooper
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (93% of attacks) — Cooper absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Cooper targets the head (83% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern
RND
Cooper
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Cooper · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0103.4L4.5W1.5L5.2W2.7L5.5L2016-072016-112017-032017-122018-052018-11
WinLossTrend

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Cooper · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ashley YoderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernRating 2.7
Submission
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · KO · R2
Angela MaganaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Cynthia CalvilloRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Anna ElmoseRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Amanda Cooper
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