UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
Edmonton, Canada
27 Jul 2019
Lightweight
VS
22%
Aubin-Mercier
78%
Tsarukyan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Arman
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
23 – 3
Well-Rounded5-fight win streak29 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'7"
CFR 68

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tsarukyan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Aubin-Mercier
Tsarukyan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
+72"
37
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Aubin-Mercier
Tsarukyan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
67.5
49.0
Performance Avg
58.4
43
Quality of Victory
42
61
Momentum Score
100
Aubin-Mercier
Tsarukyan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
55%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
17
2
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch2
5Ground15
Aubin-Mercier
Tsarukyan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aubin-Mercier
Tsarukyan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/16 fights
Chin rating based on
12/26 fights
Aubin-Mercier
Tsarukyan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Aubin-Mercier
Tsarukyan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aubin-Mercier
Tsarukyan
Striking2.6 / 5.7Volume3.5 / 5.7Grappling5.3 / 2.0Wrestling3.7 / 1.4Submission5.7 / 1.0Pressure6.8 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Aubin-Mercier
Strike Zones
Tsarukyan
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD4BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Tsarukyan
Attacking
17HEAD4BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (71% of attacks) — Tsarukyan absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Tsarukyan targets the head (81% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aubin-Mercier
RND
Tsarukyan
0/0R00/0

Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5L5.5W6.5W4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L7.1L2014-042015-082016-122018-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Tsarukyan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0107.5L4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W6.5W6.6L4.5W6.1W6.0W5.9W6.0W2019-042021-012022-062023-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Aubin-Mercier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

Tsarukyan · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Dan HookerRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · KO · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

News & Media

Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Arman Tsarukyan
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