UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Edmonton, Canada
2 Nov 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
15%
Machado
85%
Ribeiro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ribeiro
Ribeiro is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ribeiro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 37 points.
Machado has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ribeiro has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Machado
Ribeiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
+81"
31
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machado
Ribeiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
6.8
38.2
0.0
Performance Avg
33.8
0
Quality of Victory
37
0
Momentum Score
54
Machado
Ribeiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
40%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
14
15
Body
7
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
32Distance21
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Machado
Ribeiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machado
Ribeiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
20
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/12 fights
Chin rating based on
7/27 fights
Machado
Ribeiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
54
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Machado
Ribeiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Machado
Ribeiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
MachadoRibeiro
Strike Zones
Machado
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedRibeiro
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Machado targets the head (47% of attacks) — Ribeiro absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Ribeiro targets the head (67% of attacks) — Machado absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Machado
RND
Ribeiro
0/0R00/0
Machado · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Ribeiro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Machado · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Brendson RibeiroRating 5.7Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevRating 3.8Submission
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