UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Vancouver, Canada
10 Jun 2023
Featherweight
VS
57%
Nelson
43%
Bilder
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 57% vs Bilder at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Bilder has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson
Bilder
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
68"
35
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Switch
Nelson
Bilder
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
28.0
41.6
Performance Avg
28.3
39
Quality of Victory
25
36
Momentum Score
27
Nelson
Bilder
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
7
9
Body
1
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
21Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nelson
Bilder
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Bilder
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/24 fights
Chin rating based on
3/10 fights
Nelson
Bilder
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
27
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nelson
Bilder
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Bilder
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
NelsonBilder
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedBilder
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the body (43% of attacks) — Bilder absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Bilder targets the head (64% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Bilder
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Bilder · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3KO/TKO
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Bilder · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
JeongYeong LeeRating 6.6Decision
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UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Shane YoungRating 4.5Decision
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