UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Atlanta, USA
30 Jul 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
66%
Namajunas
34%
Kowalkiewicz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Namajunas
Namajunas holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Kowalkiewicz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Namajunas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Kowalkiewicz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Namajunas's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kowalkiewicz has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Namajunas
Kowalkiewicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'3"
65"+
Reach
64"
33+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Namajunas
Kowalkiewicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.2
32.7
55.9
Performance Avg
35.6
51
Quality of Victory
28
100
Momentum Score
40
Namajunas
Kowalkiewicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
15
1
Body
8
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance9
3Clinch9
3Ground7
Namajunas
Kowalkiewicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Namajunas
Kowalkiewicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
20
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Namajunas
Kowalkiewicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Namajunas
Kowalkiewicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
11%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Namajunas
Kowalkiewicz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.2
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
NamajunasKowalkiewicz
Strike Zones
Namajunas
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedKowalkiewicz
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Namajunas targets the head (84% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (60% of attacks) — Namajunas absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Namajunas
RND
Kowalkiewicz
0/0R00/0
Namajunas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Namajunas · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Erin BlanchfieldRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
W · Dec · R5
Tracy CortezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Amanda RibasRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Kowalkiewicz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05