UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
Memphis, USA
12 Dec 2009
Catch Weight
VS
52%
Belcher
48%
Gouveia
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:03
AB
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
18 – 8
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
WG
Wilson Gouveia
14 – 8
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'1"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Belcher

This is a genuine toss-up — Belcher at 52% vs Gouveia at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Gouveia throws more volume but Belcher connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Belcher's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gouveia has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Belcher
Gouveia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
75"
Reach
+76"
42+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Belcher
Gouveia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.4
21.0
53.0
Performance Avg
56.2
48
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
72
Belcher
Gouveia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
28
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance29
2Clinch0
2Ground0
Belcher
Gouveia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Belcher
Gouveia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/26 fights
Chin rating based on
10/22 fights
Belcher
Gouveia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
72
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Belcher
Gouveia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Belcher
Gouveia
Striking5.6 / 4.5Volume2.1 / 1.2Grappling2.9 / 5.3Wrestling2.0 / 3.7Submission3.3 / 6.7Pressure7.2 / 8.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
Belcher
Strike Zones
Gouveia
Belcher
Attacking
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD0BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Gouveia
Attacking
28HEAD0BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Belcher targets the head (90% of attacks) — Gouveia absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Gouveia targets the head (97% of attacks) — Belcher absorbs 97% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Belcher
RND
Gouveia
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Belcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.0W4.2W1.5L4.7W5.2W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L2006-082007-102009-072012-052013-04
WinLossTrend

Gouveia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W5.0W4.0L1.5L2006-062007-052008-092009-12
WinLossTrend

Belcher · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · KO · R1
Rousimar PalharesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R2
Patrick CoteRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05

Gouveia · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · KO · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson · 2009-02
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12
W · Sub · R2
Ryan JensenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer · 2008-09
L · KO · R2
Goran ReljicRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 84: Ill Will · 2008-05

News & Media

Alan Belcher · Wilson Gouveia
← Back to fights