METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
66%
Satybaldiev
34%
Nurgozhay
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:45
★ Official Result
Uran SatybaldievwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:45
def. Diyar Nurgozhay · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Satybaldiev
→
Actual result
Satybaldiev wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Satybaldiev holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Nurgozhay has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Satybaldiev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Nurgozhay has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SatybaldievNurgozhay
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
74"
31
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
30.8
52.4
Performance Avg
28.3
54
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
33
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
1.6
23%
Strike Accuracy
73%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
3
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.9
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/10 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
33
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
SatybaldievNurgozhay
Strike Zones
Satybaldiev
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedNurgozhay
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Satybaldiev targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nurgozhay absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nurgozhay targets the body (43% of attacks) — Satybaldiev absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Satybaldiev
RND
Nurgozhay
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Satybaldiev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Nurgozhay · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Satybaldiev · Last 2
W · Sub · R1
Diyar NurgozhayRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
Nurgozhay · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Rafael TobiasRating 4.5Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Uran SatybaldievRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendson RibeiroRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03