UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
66%
Satybaldiev
34%
Nurgozhay
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:45
Uran
Uran Satybaldiev
"Gorilla"
9 – 1
6'4"79" reachOrthodox31 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 61
Diyar
Diyar Nurgozhay
11 – 2
Well-Rounded29 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'2"
CFR 31

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Satybaldiev

Satybaldiev holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Nurgozhay has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Satybaldiev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Nurgozhay has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
74"
31
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
30.8
52.4
Performance Avg
28.3
54
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
33
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.6
23%
Strike Accuracy
73%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
3
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.9
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/10 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
33
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Striking1.0 / 0.7Volume1.0 / 8.7Grappling8.0 / 2.4Wrestling5.6 / 1.7Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure8.5 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Satybaldiev
Strike Zones
Nurgozhay
Satybaldiev
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Nurgozhay
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Satybaldiev targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nurgozhay absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nurgozhay targets the body (43% of attacks) — Satybaldiev absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Satybaldiev
RND
Nurgozhay
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Satybaldiev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.5L5.0W2025-042025-08
WinLossTrend

Nurgozhay · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.4
0102.9L2.8L4.5W2025-032025-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Satybaldiev · Last 2

W · Sub · R1
Diyar NurgozhayRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04

Nurgozhay · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Rafael TobiasRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Uran SatybaldievRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendson RibeiroRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03

News & Media

Uran Satybaldiev · Diyar Nurgozhay
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