METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
56%
Satybaldiev
44%
Nurgozhay
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:45
★ Official Result
Uran SatybaldievwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:45
def. Diyar Nurgozhay · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Satybaldiev
→
Actual result
Satybaldiev wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Satybaldiev at 56% vs Nurgozhay at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Satybaldiev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SatybaldievNurgozhay
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
74"
32
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
48.7
52.4
Performance Avg
45.5
54
Quality of Victory
43
59
Momentum Score
49
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
8.5
Style: Pressure
5.0
1.0
Style: Volume
5.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
3
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/10 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
49
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Satybaldiev
Nurgozhay
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
SatybaldievNurgozhay
Strike Zones
Satybaldiev
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedNurgozhay
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Satybaldiev targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nurgozhay absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nurgozhay targets the body (43% of attacks) — Satybaldiev absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Satybaldiev
RND
Nurgozhay
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Satybaldiev · Last 2
W · Sub · R1
Diyar NurgozhaySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
Nurgozhay · Last 4
W · KO · R1
Bruno LopesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
W · Dec · R3
Rafael TobiasDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Uran SatybaldievSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendson RibeiroSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03