UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
Montevideo, Uruguay
10 Aug 2019
Welterweight
VS
80%
Luque
20%
Perry
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
Luque is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Perry has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Luque
Perry
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
71"
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Perry
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
16.4
57.2
Performance Avg
44.4
50
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
50
Luque
Perry
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
1
Body
2
11
Leg
6
RangeRange
15Distance9
0Clinch5
0Ground0
Luque
Perry
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
4.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
7
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Luque
Perry
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
15/22 fights
Luque
Perry
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Luque
Perry
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
57%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
7
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Perry
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
LuquePerry
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedPerry
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the legs (73% of attacks) — Perry absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Perry targets the head (43% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Perry
0/0R00/0
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Perry · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
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UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08