UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Phoenix, USA
17 Feb 2019
Bantamweight
VS
50%
Barao
50%
Sanders
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barao
This is a genuine toss-up — Barao at 50% vs Sanders at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Sanders has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sanders has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barao
Sanders
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
67"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Barao
Sanders
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
15.5
59.4
Performance Avg
41.8
64
Quality of Victory
45
0
Momentum Score
46
Barao
Sanders
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.2
38%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
12
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Barao
Sanders
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.7
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barao
Sanders
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Barao
Sanders
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
46
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Barao
Sanders
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
Sanders
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
BaraoSanders
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSanders
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the body (57% of attacks) — Sanders absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Sanders targets the head (86% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
Sanders
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Sanders · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
Sanders · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Felipe ColaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · Sub · R2
Nate ManessRating 3.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
W · KO · R2
Renan BaraoRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Sub · R1
Rani YahyaRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Patrick WilliamsRating 4.5Decision
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