★ Championship Bout · Women's Bantamweight
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
41%
Holm
59%
Tate
Win Probability
Submission
Round 5 · 3:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tate
This is a genuine toss-up — Holm at 41% vs Tate at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Holm throws more volume but Tate connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holm's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tate has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holm
Tate
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
65"
44
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Holm
Tate
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.1
52.5
46.5
Performance Avg
42.5
42
Quality of Victory
38
30
Momentum Score
94
Holm
Tate
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
3
5
Body
3
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance7
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Holm
Tate
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holm
Tate
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
14/30 fights
Holm
Tate
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
94
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Holm
Tate
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
43%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holm
Tate
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
HolmTate
Strike Zones
Holm
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTate
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holm targets the head (59% of attacks) — Tate absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Tate targets the head (38% of attacks) — Holm absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holm
RND
Tate
0/0R00/0
Holm · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Tate · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holm · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonRating 4.9Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6Decision
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