METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
38%
Blachowicz
62%
Pereira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Alex PereirawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jan Blachowicz · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pereira
→
Actual result
Pereira wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Pereira holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Blachowicz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Risk flags
Blachowicz's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pereira has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BlachowiczPereira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Blachowicz
Pereira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
+79"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blachowicz
Pereira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.0
73.3
51.8
Performance Avg
73.8
48
Quality of Victory
72
20
Momentum Score
78
Blachowicz
Pereira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.3
/ 10
9.5
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
7.9
4.5
Style: Volume
3.1
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
12
2
Body
13
4
Leg
10
RangeRange
24Distance33
1Clinch2
1Ground0
Blachowicz
Pereira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Blachowicz
Pereira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/40 fights
Chin rating based on
13/16 fights
Blachowicz
Pereira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
78
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
W · KO · R2
Blachowicz
Pereira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
80%
5
KO / TKO Wins
8
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blachowicz
Pereira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.5
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
BlachowiczPereira
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedPereira
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (77% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Pereira targets the body (37% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 37% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blachowicz
RND
Pereira
0/0R00/0
Blachowicz · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Navajo StirlingKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraDecision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
Pereira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Magomed AnkalaevKO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R4
Khalil Rountree Jr.KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaKO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06