UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
38%
Blachowicz
62%
Pereira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jan
Jan Blachowicz
29 – 11
6'2"78" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Alex
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
13 – 3
Knockout Artist38 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'4"
CFR 77

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pereira

Pereira holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Blachowicz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.

Pereira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Blachowicz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Blachowicz
Pereira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
+79"
43
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blachowicz
Pereira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
76.5
53.0
Performance Avg
76.4
48
Quality of Victory
72
20
Momentum Score
78
Blachowicz
Pereira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
68%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
12
2
Body
13
4
Leg
10
RangeRange
24Distance33
1Clinch2
1Ground0
Blachowicz
Pereira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.3
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Blachowicz
Pereira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/40 fights
Chin rating based on
13/16 fights
Blachowicz
Pereira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
W · KO · R2
Blachowicz
Pereira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
80%
5
KO / TKO Wins
8
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Blachowicz
Pereira
Striking5.4 / 9.7Volume4.5 / 3.3Grappling2.3 / 0.5Wrestling1.6 / 0.3Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure5.9 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.7
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Blachowicz
Strike Zones
Pereira
Blachowicz
Attacking
20HEAD2BODY4LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD13BODY10LEGS35 absorbed
Pereira
Attacking
12HEAD13BODY10LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD2BODY4LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (77% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Pereira targets the body (37% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 37% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Blachowicz
RND
Pereira
0/0R00/0

Blachowicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5W2.8L5.3W4.5W5.0W6.2W5.9W2.5L5.4W7.6L7.4L2014-102017-042019-022021-032025-03
WinLossTrend

Pereira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0105.2W5.8W6.1W6.9W3.5L5.1W6.8W6.3W6.8W6.3W7.0L6.5W2021-112022-112023-112024-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Blachowicz · Last 5

Upcoming
Bogdan Guskov
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6
Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed Ankalaev
Decision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05

Pereira · Last 5

Upcoming
Ciryl Gane
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Magomed AnkalaevRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R4
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.8
KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

News & Media

Jan Blachowicz · Alex Pereira
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