UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Featherweight
VS
24%
Bermudez
76%
Elkins
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DB
Dennis Bermudez
"The Menace"
17 – 9
5'6"66" reachOrthodox39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bermudez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bermudez's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bermudez
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+71"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bermudez
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
44.7
43.2
Performance Avg
46.3
33
Quality of Victory
35
50
Momentum Score
66
Bermudez
Elkins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
18
8
Body
10
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
27Distance16
7Clinch12
0Ground0
Bermudez
Elkins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bermudez
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Bermudez
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
66
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bermudez
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
37%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
3
7
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bermudez
Elkins
Striking2.2 / 3.4Volume6.8 / 6.3Grappling3.3 / 2.8Wrestling2.3 / 1.9Submission2.0 / 1.6Pressure3.9 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Bermudez
Strike Zones
Elkins
Bermudez
Attacking
21HEAD8BODY5LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD10BODY0LEGS28 absorbed
Elkins
Attacking
18HEAD10BODY0LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD8BODY5LEGS34 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bermudez targets the head (62% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Elkins targets the head (64% of attacks) — Bermudez absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bermudez
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0

Bermudez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0101.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.6W4.5W5.5W5.7W1.5L4.5L4.5W4.5W2.0L6.0L6.2L5.6L4.5W2011-122013-112016-022018-072019-01
WinLossTrend

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Bermudez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Te EdwardsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Chan Sung JungRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

News & Media

Dennis Bermudez · Darren Elkins
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