METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Featherweight
VS
24%
Bermudez
76%
Elkins
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Darren ElkinswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Dennis Bermudez · UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elkins
→
Actual result
Elkins wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Elkins is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bermudez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bermudez's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BermudezElkins
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bermudez
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+71"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bermudez
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
44.7
43.2
Performance Avg
46.3
33
Quality of Victory
35
50
Momentum Score
66
Bermudez
Elkins
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
18
8
Body
10
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
27Distance16
7Clinch12
0Ground0
Bermudez
Elkins
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bermudez
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Bermudez
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
66
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bermudez
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
37%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
3
7
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bermudez
Elkins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
BermudezElkins
Strike Zones
Bermudez
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedElkins
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bermudez targets the head (62% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Elkins targets the head (64% of attacks) — Bermudez absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bermudez
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0
Bermudez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Elkins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Bermudez · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Te EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Chan Sung JungRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04