UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
New York City, USA
4 Nov 2017
Welterweight
VS
57%
Thompson
43%
Masvidal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Thompson
This is a genuine toss-up — Thompson at 57% vs Masvidal at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Thompson throws more volume but Masvidal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Thompson
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
74"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thompson
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
35.2
48.9
Performance Avg
47.0
43
Quality of Victory
42
45
Momentum Score
43
Thompson
Masvidal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
6
12
Body
3
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
39Distance15
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Thompson
Masvidal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thompson
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Thompson
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Thompson
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thompson
Masvidal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
ThompsonMasvidal
Strike Zones
Thompson
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedMasvidal
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thompson
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Masvidal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
Masvidal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11