METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Flyweight
VS
41%
Vergara
59%
Osbourne
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ode OsbournewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. CJ Vergara · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Osbourne
→
Actual result
Osbourne wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Vergara at 41% vs Osbourne at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Osbourne has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Vergara's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Osbourne has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VergaraOsbourne
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Vergara
Osbourne
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+73"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Vergara
Osbourne
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
51.3
36.0
Performance Avg
43.7
35
Quality of Victory
45
30
Momentum Score
87
Vergara
Osbourne
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
6.8
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
5.5
6.1
Style: Volume
4.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
17
27
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance18
14Clinch1
9Ground0
Vergara
Osbourne
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vergara
Osbourne
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
16
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Vergara
Osbourne
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
87
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Vergara
Osbourne
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vergara
Osbourne
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
VergaraOsbourne
Strike Zones
Vergara
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedOsbourne
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vergara targets the body (66% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Osbourne targets the head (89% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vergara
RND
Osbourne
0/0R00/0
Vergara · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
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Upcoming
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