UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Flyweight
VS
41%
Vergara
59%
Osbourne
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Osbourne
This is a genuine toss-up — Vergara at 41% vs Osbourne at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Osbourne has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Vergara has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Vergara's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Osbourne has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Vergara
Osbourne
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+73"
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Vergara
Osbourne
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
51.3
36.0
Performance Avg
43.7
35
Quality of Victory
45
30
Momentum Score
87
Vergara
Osbourne
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
17
27
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance18
14Clinch1
9Ground0
Vergara
Osbourne
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Vergara
Osbourne
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
16
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
14/22 fights
Vergara
Osbourne
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
87
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Vergara
Osbourne
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vergara
Osbourne
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
VergaraOsbourne
Strike Zones
Vergara
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedOsbourne
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vergara targets the body (66% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Osbourne targets the head (89% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vergara
RND
Osbourne
0/0R00/0
Vergara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Osbourne · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Vergara · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5Submission
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Osbourne · Last 5
Upcoming
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Luis GuruleRating 5.2KO/TKO
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