UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Flyweight
VS
57%
Royval
43%
Schnell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Royval
This is a genuine toss-up — Royval at 57% vs Schnell at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Royval has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Royval's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Schnell has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Royval
Schnell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
68"
Reach
+70"
33+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Royval
Schnell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.3
38.1
48.2
Performance Avg
40.7
42
Quality of Victory
37
62
Momentum Score
45
Royval
Schnell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
9
2
Body
3
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance10
1Clinch0
0Ground2
Royval
Schnell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.8
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Royval
Schnell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
17/27 fights
Royval
Schnell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
62
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Royval
Schnell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
43%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Royval
Schnell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
RoyvalSchnell
Strike Zones
Royval
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedSchnell
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Royval targets the head (64% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Schnell targets the head (75% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Royval
RND
Schnell
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Royval · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Schnell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Royval · Last 5
Upcoming
Lone'er KavanaghUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Schnell · Last 5
Upcoming
Imanol RodriguezUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03