UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Sao Paulo, Brazil
16 Nov 2019
Featherweight
VS
71%
Andrade
29%
Barao
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Andrade
Andrade is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.
Andrade has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Andrade's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barao has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Andrade
Barao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
68"
Reach
+70"
40
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Andrade
Barao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.4
15.7
42.2
Performance Avg
59.4
37
Quality of Victory
64
28
Momentum Score
0
Andrade
Barao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
39%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
16
6
Body
3
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
39Distance24
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Andrade
Barao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Andrade
Barao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/36 fights
Chin rating based on
17/43 fights
Andrade
Barao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Andrade
Barao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
56%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Andrade
Barao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
AndradeBarao
Strike Zones
Andrade
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedBarao
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Andrade targets the head (79% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Barao targets the head (67% of attacks) — Andrade absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Andrade
RND
Barao
0/0R00/0
Andrade · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Andrade · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Javier ReyesRating 3.9KO/TKO
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Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
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L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
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