UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Bantamweight
VS
87%
Thicknesse
13%
Musasa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Colby
Colby Thicknesse
"Slickness"
9 – 1
5'7"69" reachOrthodox26 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Josias
Josias Musasa
"The KO Wizard"
8 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight slide27 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'8"
CFR 7

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thicknesse

Thicknesse is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Thicknesse has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Musasa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Thicknesse
Musasa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
+74"
26+
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Thicknesse
Musasa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
6.9
41.7
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
60
Momentum Score
0
Thicknesse
Musasa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.5
34%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
2
Body
4
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance11
0Clinch2
6Ground0
Thicknesse
Musasa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thicknesse
Musasa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/10 fights
Chin rating based on
2/10 fights
Thicknesse
Musasa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Thicknesse
Musasa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thicknesse
Musasa
Striking1.3 / 0.0Volume9.3 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Thicknesse
Strike Zones
Musasa
Thicknesse
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Musasa
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thicknesse targets the head (55% of attacks) — Musasa absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Musasa targets the head (62% of attacks) — Thicknesse absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thicknesse
RND
Musasa
0/0R00/0

Thicknesse · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.8L4.5W4.5W2025-022025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Musasa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0102.8L6.0L2025-032025-09
WinLossTrend

Thicknesse · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Josias MusasaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandre TopuriaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

Musasa · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Sub · R1
Carlos VeraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03

News & Media

Colby Thicknesse · Josias Musasa
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