METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Las Vegas, USA
16 Oct 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
6%
Nunes
94%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:57
★ Official Result
Ariane CarnelossiwinsSubmissionR3 · 2:57
def. Istela Nunes · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Carnelossi
→
Actual result
Carnelossi wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Carnelossi is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Nunes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nunes's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NunesCarnelossi
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nunes
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'2"
66"+
Reach
61"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nunes
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
3.2
54.8
0.0
Performance Avg
47.1
0
Quality of Victory
45
0
Momentum Score
65
Nunes
Carnelossi
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
0.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
8
2
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nunes
Carnelossi
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nunes
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
84
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Nunes
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
65
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Nunes
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nunes
Carnelossi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
NunesCarnelossi
Strike Zones
Nunes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCarnelossi
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nunes targets the head (62% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (89% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nunes
RND
Carnelossi
0/0R00/0
Nunes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Carnelossi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Nunes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Loma LookboonmeeRating 6.4Decision
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L · KO · R1
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L · KO · R2
Yazmin JaureguiRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sam HughesRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
Carnelossi · Last 5
Upcoming
Ketlen SouzaUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
Piera RodriguezRating 5UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10