UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Las Vegas, USA
16 Oct 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
6%
Nunes
94%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:57
Istela
Istela Nunes
6 – 6
5'4"66" reachOrthodox33 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 3
Ariane
Ariane Carnelossi
"Sorriso"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox61" reach5'2"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carnelossi

Carnelossi is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.

Nunes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nunes's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nunes
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'2"
66"+
Reach
61"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nunes
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
3.2
54.8
0.0
Performance Avg
47.1
0
Quality of Victory
45
0
Momentum Score
65
Nunes
Carnelossi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
8
2
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nunes
Carnelossi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nunes
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
84
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Nunes
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
65
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Nunes
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nunes
Carnelossi
Striking0.0 / 4.3Volume0.0 / 1.0Grappling0.0 / 2.7Wrestling0.0 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure0.0 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Nunes
Strike Zones
Carnelossi
Nunes
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Carnelossi
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nunes targets the head (62% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (89% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nunes
RND
Carnelossi
0/0R00/0

Nunes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0L6.2L3.0L2.1L6.4L2021-102022-042022-122023-072025-04
WinLossTrend

Carnelossi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.6L5.2W5.5W6.0L5.0W5.2L2019-092021-042021-102022-052024-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Nunes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Loma LookboonmeeRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · KO · R1
Viktoriia DudakovaRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Yazmin JaureguiRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sam HughesRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10

Carnelossi · Last 5

Upcoming
Ketlen Souza
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
Piera RodriguezRating 5
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10

News & Media

Istela Nunes · Ariane Carnelossi
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