METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Las Vegas, USA
16 Oct 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
6%
Nunes
94%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:57
★ Official Result
Ariane CarnelossiwinsSubmissionR3 · 2:57
def. Istela Nunes · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Carnelossi
→
Actual result
Carnelossi wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Carnelossi is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Risk flags
Nunes's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Carnelossi has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NunesCarnelossi
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nunes
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'2"
66"+
Reach
61"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nunes
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
3.2
47.7
0.0
Performance Avg
42.6
0
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
52
Nunes
Carnelossi
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
6.0
0.0
Style: Volume
0.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
8
2
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nunes
Carnelossi
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nunes
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
62
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Nunes
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
52
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Nunes
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nunes
Carnelossi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
NunesCarnelossi
Strike Zones
Nunes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCarnelossi
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nunes targets the head (62% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (89% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nunes
RND
Carnelossi
0/0R00/0
Nunes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Loma LookboonmeeDecision
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L · KO · R1
Viktoriia DudakovaKO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Yazmin JaureguiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sam HughesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
Carnelossi · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ketlen SouzaKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarSubmission
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W · R2
Piera RodriguezUFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10