UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jul 2021
Welterweight
VS
62%
Rodriguez
38%
Parsons
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:47
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
Rodriguez holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Parsons has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Rodriguez throws more volume but Parsons connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rodriguez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Parsons has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodriguez
Parsons
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
39
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Parsons
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.3
32.2
50.7
Performance Avg
28.3
37
Quality of Victory
25
70
Momentum Score
50
Rodriguez
Parsons
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.9
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
14
2
Body
4
7
Leg
5
RangeRange
38Distance23
1Clinch0
6Ground0
Rodriguez
Parsons
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Parsons
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
52
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Rodriguez
Parsons
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
50
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Parsons
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodriguez
Parsons
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
RodriguezParsons
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Attacking
45 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedParsons
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
45 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (80% of attacks) — Parsons absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Parsons targets the head (61% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodriguez
RND
Parsons
0/0R00/0
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Parsons · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Ian Machado GarryRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
Parsons · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jacobe SmithRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Oban ElliottRating 6.2Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · Dec · R3
Trevin GilesRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Evan ElderRating 5.1Decision
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