UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Chicago, USA
23 Jul 2016
Bantamweight
VS
33%
Saenz
67%
Wineland
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Wineland
Wineland holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Saenz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Wineland has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Wineland throws more volume but Saenz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Saenz's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Wineland has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Saenz
Wineland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
+69"
45
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Saenz
Wineland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
28.2
35.0
Performance Avg
45.0
25
Quality of Victory
50
75
Momentum Score
78
Saenz
Wineland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.8
48%
Strike Accuracy
32%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
14
0
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance12
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Saenz
Wineland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Saenz
Wineland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
16/40 fights
Saenz
Wineland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Saenz
Wineland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
83%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Saenz
Wineland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
SaenzWineland
Strike Zones
Saenz
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedWineland
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Saenz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Wineland absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Wineland targets the head (93% of attacks) — Saenz absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Saenz
RND
Wineland
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Saenz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Wineland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Saenz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Marlon VeraRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Henry BrionesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Augusto MendesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Wineland · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cody StamannRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
John CastanedaRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · KO · R2
Grigory PopovRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07