Rafael Natal vs Tim Boetsch — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor

New York City, USA

12 Nov 2016

Middleweight

48%

Natal

52%

Boetsch

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 3:22

Rafael Natal

"Sapo"

21 – 9

6'0"77" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 15

Tim Boetsch

"The Barbarian"

21 – 13

Striker2-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"

CFR 17

★ Official Result

Tim BoetschwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:22

def. Rafael Natal · UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Boetsch

→

Actual result

Boetsch wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Natal at 48% vs Boetsch at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Boetsch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Risk flags

Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Boetsch has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

NatalBoetsch

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Natal

Boetsch

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'0"

Height

6'0"

77"+

Reach

74"

43+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Natal

Boetsch

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

15.2

16.6

40.5

Performance Avg

46.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Natal

Boetsch

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.2

/ 10

6.8

/ 10

3.2

Style: Pressure

5.6

7.3

Style: Volume

4.3

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

7 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

5Distance11

0Clinch0

0Ground3

Natal

Boetsch

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.8

/ 10

1.0

/ 10

1.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.7

1.1

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Natal

Boetsch

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.3 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

6 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

17/30 fights

Chin rating based on

24/34 fights

Natal

Boetsch

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R1

W · KO · R2

L · Sub · R1

W · KO · R1

Natal

Boetsch

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

22%

58%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Natal

Boetsch

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.2

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.8

2.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.0

1.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.7

1.1

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

3.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

7.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.3

Natal

Strike Zones

Boetsch

Natal

Attacking

5 landed

Absorbing

14 absorbed

Boetsch

Attacking

14 landed

Absorbing

5 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Natal targets the head (40% of attacks) — Boetsch absorbs 40% of strikes there

🎯Boetsch targets the head (64% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Natal

RND

Boetsch

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Eryk Anders

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07

L · KO · R1

Tim Boetsch

KO/TKO

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

L · Dec · R3

Robert Whittaker

Decision

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04

W · KO · R3

Kevin Casey

KO/TKO

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01

W · Dec · R3

Uriah Hall

Decision

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Boetsch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Omari Akhmedov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03

L · Sub · R1

Antonio Carlos Junior

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

W · KO · R2

Johny Hendricks

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06

L · Sub · R1

Jacare Souza

Submission

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02

W · KO · R1

Rafael Natal

KO/TKO

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

News & Media

Rafael Natal · Tim Boetsch

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