UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Middleweight
VS
48%
Natal
52%
Boetsch
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:22
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
6'0"77" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
TB
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21 – 13
Striker2-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Boetsch

This is a genuine toss-up — Natal at 48% vs Boetsch at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Boetsch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Boetsch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Boetsch has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Natal
Boetsch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
74"
43+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Boetsch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
16.6
40.5
Performance Avg
46.0
30
Quality of Victory
43
81
Momentum Score
69
Natal
Boetsch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
57%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
1
Body
1
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Natal
Boetsch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Natal
Boetsch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
24/34 fights
Natal
Boetsch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
69
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Natal
Boetsch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
58%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Natal
Boetsch
Striking2.2 / 6.8Volume7.3 / 4.3Grappling2.8 / 1.0Wrestling1.9 / 0.7Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure3.2 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Natal
Strike Zones
Boetsch
Natal
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY4LEGS14 absorbed
Boetsch
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY4LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (40% of attacks) — Boetsch absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Boetsch targets the head (64% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Natal
RND
Boetsch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Boetsch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W2.8L5.0W5.5L4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.0L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.3W2.8L1.5L2.9L5.2W5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L5.5L2008-022011-052013-102016-072019-03
WinLossTrend

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Boetsch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
L · Sub · R1
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · KO · R2
Johny HendricksRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael NatalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

News & Media

Rafael Natal · Tim Boetsch
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