METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Middleweight
VS
48%
Natal
52%
Boetsch
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:22
★ Official Result
Tim BoetschwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:22
def. Rafael Natal · UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Boetsch
→
Actual result
Boetsch wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Natal at 48% vs Boetsch at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Boetsch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Boetsch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Boetsch has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NatalBoetsch
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Natal
Boetsch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
74"
43+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Boetsch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
16.6
40.5
Performance Avg
46.0
30
Quality of Victory
43
81
Momentum Score
69
Natal
Boetsch
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
57%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
1
Body
1
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Natal
Boetsch
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Natal
Boetsch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
24/34 fights
Natal
Boetsch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
69
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Natal
Boetsch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
58%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Natal
Boetsch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
NatalBoetsch
Strike Zones
Natal
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedBoetsch
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (40% of attacks) — Boetsch absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Boetsch targets the head (64% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Natal
RND
Boetsch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Natal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Boetsch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Boetsch · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
L · Sub · R1
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · KO · R2
Johny HendricksRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5Submission
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael NatalRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11