UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Gadzhiyasulov
43%
Lopes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Magomed
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
9 – 1
6'2"75" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Bruno
Bruno Lopes
"The Brazilian Cowboy"
14 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 29

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gadzhiyasulov

This is a genuine toss-up — Gadzhiyasulov at 57% vs Lopes at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Lopes throws more volume but Gadzhiyasulov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lopes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"+
Reach
74"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
29.2
35.0
Performance Avg
28.3
25
Quality of Victory
25
46
Momentum Score
33
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
1
Body
5
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance4
2Clinch8
0Ground0
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
56
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/10 fights
Chin rating based on
3/17 fights
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
33
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Striking1.0 / 0.7Volume9.0 / 8.7Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Gadzhiyasulov
Strike Zones
Lopes
Gadzhiyasulov
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD5BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Lopes
Attacking
6HEAD5BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gadzhiyasulov targets the head (43% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Lopes targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gadzhiyasulov absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gadzhiyasulov
RND
Lopes
0/0R00/0

Gadzhiyasulov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5L2024-062025-01
WinLossTrend

Lopes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.7W2.9L4.3L2025-012025-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Gadzhiyasulov · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Bruno LopesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Brendson RibeiroRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06

Lopes · Last 3

L · KO · R2
Navajo StirlingRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Magomed GadzhiyasulovRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

News & Media

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov · Bruno Lopes
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