METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
59%
Gadzhiyasulov
41%
Lopes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Bruno LopeswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gadzhiyasulov
→
Actual result
Lopes wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gadzhiyasulov at 59% vs Lopes at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Lopes has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GadzhiyasulovLopes
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"+
Reach
74"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.8
24.5
35.0
Performance Avg
25.0
25
Quality of Victory
25
46
Momentum Score
28
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.5
Style: Pressure
0.8
9.0
Style: Volume
8.5
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
1
Body
5
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance4
2Clinch8
0Ground0
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
34
Never stopped
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/10 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
28
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gadzhiyasulov
Lopes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
GadzhiyasulovLopes
Strike Zones
Gadzhiyasulov
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedLopes
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gadzhiyasulov targets the head (43% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Lopes targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gadzhiyasulov absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gadzhiyasulov
RND
Lopes
0/0R00/0
Gadzhiyasulov · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Bruno LopesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Brendson RibeiroDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
Lopes · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Diyar NurgozhayKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · KO · R2
Navajo StirlingKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Magomed GadzhiyasulovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01