METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Dallas, USA
30 Jul 2022
Lightweight
VS
63%
Dober
37%
Alves
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:30
★ Official Result
Drew DoberwinsKO/TKOR3 · 1:30
def. Rafael Alves · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dober
→
Actual result
Dober wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Dober holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Alves has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Dober throws more volume but Alves connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dober's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DoberAlves
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dober
Alves
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
37
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dober
Alves
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
35.6
53.2
Performance Avg
42.4
50
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
29
Dober
Alves
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
0.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
56%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
11 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
6
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance6
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Dober
Alves
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dober
Alves
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
4/32 fights
Dober
Alves
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
29
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Dober
Alves
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
11
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dober
Alves
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
DoberAlves
Strike Zones
Dober
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedAlves
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dober targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Alves targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dober
RND
Alves
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
Alves · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Nurullo AlievRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R1
Marc DiakieseRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05