UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Dallas, USA
30 Jul 2022
Lightweight
VS
63%
Dober
37%
Alves
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:30
Drew
Drew Dober
29 – 15
5'8"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 60
RA
Rafael Alves
"The Turn"
20 – 12
Submission Hunter2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 36

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dober

Dober holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Alves has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Dober throws more volume but Alves connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Dober's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dober
Alves
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
37
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dober
Alves
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
35.6
53.2
Performance Avg
42.4
50
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
29
Dober
Alves
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
56%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
11 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
6
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance6
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Dober
Alves
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dober
Alves
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
4/32 fights
Dober
Alves
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
29
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Dober
Alves
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
11
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dober
Alves
Striking8.5 / 0.5Volume2.8 / 0.5Grappling1.0 / 8.0Wrestling0.7 / 5.6Submission0.7 / 10.0Pressure7.3 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Dober
Strike Zones
Alves
Dober
Attacking
7HEAD6BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Alves
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD6BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dober targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Alves targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dober
RND
Alves
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Dober · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L5.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W3.7L5.0W5.7W6.1W6.0L5.5L6.5W5.5W6.0W1.7L5.1W6.3L7.1L3.6L5.5W5.3W2013-112017-072021-032024-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.1W5.2L6.8L2021-052021-112022-072023-02
WinLossTrend

Dober · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

Alves · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Nurullo AlievRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R1
Marc DiakieseRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05

News & Media

Drew Dober · Rafael Alves
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